![]() ![]() (Pro tip: as closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)Īs for the next Fed meeting, it begins on October 31 and will end with a policy statement on November 1 at 2 pm Eastern. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm. These meetings last two days, and conclude with the FOMC releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. When you consider the Fed's dual mandate of promoting both "maximum" employment and stable prices against the backdrop of financial sector stress and rising recession odds, no wonder investors are obsessed with the question of "when is the next Fed meeting?"įor the record, the central bank's rate-setting committee is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Īs you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year. Indeed, a September jobs report that showed the pace of hiring sizzled last month keeps the Federal Reserve on track to maintain its higher for longer policy on interest rates, experts say. Most importantly, there's the labor market, which remains stronger than the Fed would probably like. Other studies predict similarly underwhelming growth. For context, in the decade prior to the pandemic, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. Separately, a survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects real GDP growth of just 1.3% this year. entering a recession over the next 12 months. The New York Fed's yield-curve model gives a 56% probability to the U.S. The bond market is awash in inverted yield curves, for one thing, and that's not very reassuring at all. They have good reasons to remain cautious. "However, the downward trend remains in place in our view, with the core CPI set to recede further over the coming year as shelter disinflation resumes, supply-related pressures ease and consumers grow more price sensitive."Īs for the bigger picture, although economists as a group have become more optimistic about the path of the economy, they still put the odds of a recession hitting in the next 12 months at 54%. "September's CPI demonstrates that progress in lowering inflation ahead is likely to prove slower-going than it has been over the past year," writes Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Headline inflation rose by more than economists were expecting last month, per the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), supporting the view that higher for longer interest rates will be necessary to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's long-term target. Meanwhile, the economic data aren't conclusively helping the case for lower interest rates – even as rate increases put stress on the banking sector and threaten to push the economy into recession. The S&P 500 generated a total return (price change plus dividends) of -18% last year. It goes without saying that more rate hikes are the last thing everyone from investors to would-be home buyers wants to see.Īfter all, who can forget that rising interest rates sparked turmoil in the banking sector? Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, Credit Suisse ( CS) was forced into the arms of competitor UBS ( UBS) and First Republic Bank had to be rescued by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM).Īnd surely no one can forget that the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades absolutely clobbered equity markets in 2022. "Although Fed officials did not increase the median federal funds rate they had estimated during the release of the dot plot in June of this year, the new projections show a still very hawkish Fed as they took away two rate decreases that had been in place during the release of the June SEP and corresponding dot plot," wrote Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James. ![]()
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